Your portfolio
+1.0
—
OnlyAlpha Signal
Value
Day
OnlyAlpha Score
Pivot
vs Pivot
Docking chart
PortfolioOrbit line (portfolio + Score)PivotDocked: the lines meet (Score under 10)Below the Pivot
Backtest: what the signal would have done
Buy and holdSignal: sell to cashSignal: hedge instead of selling
Hypothetical. Hold shares = today's share counts held the whole period. Rebalance daily = kept at your target weights every day, like an equal-weight index. Dividends reinvested where the demo data has them, no trading costs or taxes. The signal is read at each close and acted on from the next day. Hedge = the basket hedge above, each holding hedged by its rolling one-year beta, put on while the portfolio is below the Pivot. 2× and 3× rows apply leveraged-ETF style daily leverage to the whole portfolio while it's above its Pivot, after financing at the T-bill rate and about 1.9% (2×) or 3.0% (3×) a year of fund costs, which matches what SSO, QLD, SPXL and TQQQ actually delivered against their indexes. Before those funds existed the leverage is simulated. Leveraged funds can lose most of their value in a single crash day, before any Pivot exit can happen. Cash, including the Quads' 25% and time out of the market, earns T-bill returns: BIL (1–3 month T-bills) since 2007, SHY (1–3 year Treasuries) before that.
Monte Carlo: will the money last?
Held: typical pathPivot: typical pathPivot: middle 80% of outcomesHeld: middle 80%Dashed: bad-luck 10th percentile
"This portfolio" uses the period selected above; "Max" gives the most history, but it only goes back to the 2000s, a strong bull era that flatters holding. "US market since 1927" includes the Depression, the 1970s and every crash since. In actual history, a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal from the US market starting in any year from 1928 to 1996 lasted 30 years 66 times out of 69 when held, and 69 out of 69 following the Pivot. Past stretches are reshuffled, not predicted. Hypothetical; no taxes or trading costs.
Stress test: your portfolio in every crisis since 2000
Each crisis measured from the market's peak to its bottom, with dividends. "Following the Pivot" sells to T-bills when your portfolio closes below its Pivot and buys back when it closes above. Holdings that didn't exist yet are carried by the rest of the portfolio. For the 1929, 1937, 1973 and 1987 crashes, see A century of the Pivot.
Hedge instead of selling
Compare: hedging the whole portfolio with one index fund
How it's sized: each holding is matched to the hedge fund that tracked it most closely over the last year (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell, Dow, international, Treasuries, gold, silver, commodities, oil, REITs or a sector fund), and hedged by its own beta to that fund. A holding that is itself a mix, like the PRPFX fund, gets up to three hedge funds when that explains clearly more of its moves. Bonds you enter are hedged with Treasury funds, or the S&P 500 for high-yield credit. Holdings that are themselves a hedge fund, like GLD or TLT, are hedged with the inverse fund (GLL, TBT, SH, PSQ), because shorting a fund you own is a constructive sale for tax purposes. Inverse funds reset daily and drift over long holds; 2× funds need half the dollars. Gains or losses on any hedge are taxable. Ask your tax advisor.
Holdings
Score shading: yellow under 10 or over 90, green 10–20, pink 80–90. Price is green above its own Pivot and red below.